Overtime Problems???

Hughesy suggested that I discuss the NFL Overtime rules. It's definitely a popular subject since this scenario can be totally gay:

- Teams are tied. Teams go to overtime. Team A wins the coin toss. Team A drives 40 yards. Team A boots a 45 yard field goal. Team B never sees the ball.

The NFL has one of four choices for how overtime could work:

1. Keep the rules as they currently stand. Overtime is sudden death. The first team to score wins and if no one scores at the end of the 15 minute quarter then the game is a tie.

2. Use the rules implemented by the new UFL. Each team gets 1 possession. If the game is still tied after both teams get a possession then it is sudden death from that point forward. If no one scores at the end of the 15 minute quarter then the game is a tie.

3. A full 15 minute overtime is played. Whoever is leading at the end wins the game. If it is still tied then the game is over with the game declared a tie.

4. Adopt college rule overtime where each team starts at the opponents 25 yard line. They get alternating possessions until one team is leading at the end of a full overtime. There are no ties.

I've done some research and a lot of thinking. I think there is one clear cut winner.

*My winner is #1 . The NFL should keep the current overtime rules*

Allow me to explain why options #2, #3, and #4 just wouldn't work.

#2. On paper this does sound like the most logical choice. Each team is guaranteed one possession. Should the game still happen to be tied then it is sudden death from this point forward. Here's why I don't like it...

The third possession still goes to the team who won the toss. No matter what someone *will* have the first chance to win once it is sudden death.

I think this method will lead to a shit load of ties. Let's say the Pats and Colts go to OT. Tom Brady takes the Patriots on a seven minute touchdown scoring drive. Not to be outdone Peyton Manning takes the Colts on a six minute touchdown scoring drive. Suddenly there are two minutes left in overtime and the Colts are kicking off to the Patriots. At this point for them they are either going to tie or lose the game. They aren't going to kick an onside kick. Would they go for two on their prior TD? I would think that under these overtime rules you would go from a tie every three or four years to two or three ties every year.... and that's just gay. Who wants ties?

What would happen if there was a safety? Would the game be over? It would have to be, right? Would they still kick off hoping for a turnover? If there was a turnover then that would mean the kicking team now has their 2nd possession so a safety would end it.

A defensive touchdown would end it too. Imagine if the Patriots and Colts were tied at 17 going into OT. The Patriots score going up 24-17. Then on the Colts possession Leigh Bodden picks off a pass and takes it to the house. Would the final box score say Pats 30 Colts 17 OT??? I think my head would explode. Winning by 13 in OT? Would the game just end as soon as the interception happened since the Colts possession will have ended???

I don't like any of these scenarios they are just stupid and confusing. Why draw this out because our feelings are hurt that we lost a coin toss and can't stop the other team?

#3. This is a poor analogy but I'll use it nonetheless. One of the three or four times in my life I actually watched a soccer game was the MLS finals a few years ago when the New England Revolution went to overtime against the Houston Dynamo. In this extra session Taylor Twellman scored a goal and I celebrated (as much as I genuinely could) since I figured they just won the title. Nope. They play a full 10 or 15 minutes. Wicked lame. First off this match was 0-0 through the 13,650 minute game. Why in God's name would soccer not be sudden death??? Needless to say Houston scored 1 minute later, they went to penalty kicks, and the Revs lost these 4-3.

Long story short is that OT loses everything if it isn't sudden death. Sudden death overtime leaves us on the edge of our seats because at any moment the game could end. As a fan what more could you ask for? Scenario #2 cuts into the sudden death factor to a degree while #3 wipes it out altogether.

I also think that players would hate this choice the most. Football players get the hell beat out of them and to ask them to play another 15 minutes isn't something they want to do. You may say: 'But Joe, hockey players play 80 some odd games plus grueling round after round of the playoffs, can't football players suck it up for 15 additional minutes?' My response is that hockey players are of a different species. These guys are just wired different than any other athlete. Did everyone hear about all the injuries the Bruins played with last postseason? Insane!!! Ok I'm rambling and getting off topic. Bottom line - Scenario #3 is the worst one... so far....

#4. A lot of people like the college rules overtime and admittedly it is exciting and has its pluses. I don't know if its me though but it just seems amateur. Could you really see a playoff game or a Super Bowl coming down to teams trading possessions from the 25?? To me that's less climactic. Watching a game.... touchdown Patriots but you can't really celebrate too much because Peyton Manning and the Colts start from the 25. I instead like to do back flips since the game should be over. I like sudden death.

Here's another big thing too, and is why, in my opinion, this can work in college but not in the pros. Stats. If you introduce college rule overtime you are going to start breaking records for points scored, touchdowns scored, touchdowns thrown, etc. It may sound gay but I think records mean something in the NFL. Most big NFL fans know records too right off the top of their head. They may not know the number per say like baseball but they know who holds the record. Passing TD's - Brady... Passing Yards - Marino... Rushing Yards - Eric Dickerson... TD's - LT... Receiving Yards - Jerry Rice... Receiving TD's - Randy Moss. All time scoring team - 2007 Patriots.

Wouldn't it just be gay as hell to see a QB with 8 TD's in 1 game but 4 came in OT? That's dumb.

Quick... can anyone name the college record for anything above? Uhhhh Passing - Ty Detmer? Steve McNair? Peyton Manning??? Rushing - Ricky Williams? Ron Dayne? Herschel Walker?? Receiving - Randy Moss? Michael Crabtree?? Christ I have no idea and I probably didn't even list the people who have those records. Points are nothing special in college either since the first three games of Florida's season are typically against Shlongville University, Florida A&M Tech, and Wheaton College. So you know what? Shit, this style of OT works here.

HOWEVER, in the big boy league, where they don't have computers determine national champions, where they don't have recruiting advantages, where they don't play cupcake teams, this style of overtime just doesn't really fit in.

I went onto ESPN.com and looked through all the over time games from the past 4+ years. I marked how many possessions it took to win the game. I marked asterisks (******) next to any game that ended on the 1st possession:

2005:
Week 3 Jacksonville 26 NYJ 20 - 5th Possession
Week 4 Washington 20 Seattle 17 - 1st Possession******
Week 6 Dallas 16 NYG 13 - 2nd Possession
Week 6 Jacksonville 23 Pittsburgh 17 - 4th Possession
Week 8 Chicago 19 Detroit 13 - 3rd Possession
Week 11 Baltimore 16 Pittsburgh 13 - 4th Possession
Week 12 Denver 24 Dallas 21 - 1st Possession******
Week 12 San Diego 23 Washington 17 - 1st Possession******
Week 12 St Louis 33 Houston 27 - 1st Possession******
Week 12 Seattle 24 NYG 21 - 5th Possession
Week 14 NYG 26 Philadelphia 23 - 4th Possession
Week 14 Green Bay 16 Detroit 13 - 1st Possession******
Week 16 Tampa Bay 27 Atlanta - 6th Possession
Week 17 San Francisco 20 Houston 17 - 5th Possession

2005 = 14 Overtimes and 5 ended on the 1st possession

2006:
Week 2 Minnesota 16 Carolina 13 - 2nd Possession
Week 2 NYG 30 Philadelphia 24 - 3rd Possession
Week 2 Denver 9 Kansas City 6 - 1st Possession******
Week 4 Washington 36 Jacksonville 30 - 1st Possession******
Week 7 Atlanta 41 Pittsburgh 38 - 1st Possession******
Week 13 Cleveland 31 Kansas City 28 - 2nd Possession
Week 14 Tennessee 26 Houston 20 - 1st Possession******
Week 15 Chicago 34 Tampa Bay 31 - 6th Possession
Week 16 St Louis 37 Washington 31 - 3rd Possession
Week 17 Pittsburgh 23 Cincinnati 17 - 1st Possession
Week 17 San Francisco 26 Denver 23 - 4th Possession
Divisional Playoff Round: Chicago 27 Seattle 24 - 2nd Possession

2006 = 12 Overtimes and 5 ended on the 1st possession

2007:
Week 1 Washington 16 Miami 13 - 1st Possession******
Week 2 Detroit 20 Minnesota 17 - 2nd Possession
Week 2 Denver 23 Oakland 20 - 3rd Possession
Week 8 Green Bay 19 Denver 13 - 1st Possession******
Week 9 Washington 23 NYJ 20 - 2nd Possession
Week 9 Cleveland 33 Seattle 30 - 2nd Possession
Week 11 Cleveland 33 Baltimore 30 - 1st Possession******
Week 11 NYJ 19 Pittsburgh 16 - 3rd Possession
Week 12 San Francisco 37 Arizona 31 - 6th Possession
Week 12 Chicago 37 Denver 34 - 1st Possession******
Week 14 San Diego 23 Tennessee 17 - 3rd Possession
Week 15 Miami 22 Baltimore 16 - 2nd Possession
Week 16 Arizona 30 Atlanta 27 - 1st Possession******
Week 17 NYJ 13 Kansas City 10 - 1st Possession******
Week 17 Denver 22 Minnesota 19 - 2nd Possession
NFC Championship Game: NYG 23 Green Bay 20 - 2nd Possession

2007 = 16 Overtimes and 6 ended on the 1st possession

2008:
Week 2 San Francisco 33 Seattle 30 - 1st Possession******
Week 3 Tampa Bay 27 Chicago 24 - 3rd Possession
Week 3 NY Giants 26 Cincy 23 - 3rd Possession
Week 4 Jacksonville 30 Houston 27 - 1st Possession******
Week 4 Pittsburgh 23 Baltimore 20 - 3rd Possession
Week 6 Arizona 30 Dallas 24 - 2nd Possession
Week 7 Oakland 16 NYJ 13 - 6th Possession
Week 9 Tennessee 19 Green Bay 16 - 1st Possession******
Week 9 Tampa Bay 30 Kansas City 27 - 1st Possession******
Week 11 NYJ 34 New England 31 - 1st Possession******
Week 11 Cincinnati 13 Philadelphia 13 TIE GAME
Week 15 Chicago 27 New Orleans 24 - 1st Possession******
Week 15 Atlanta 13 Tampa Bay 10 - 2nd Possession
Week 16 NYG 34 Carolina 28 - 3rd Possession
Week 16 Chicago 20 Green Bay 17 - 1st Possession******
Wild Card Playoffs: San Diego 23 Indianapolis 17 - 1st Possession******

2008 = 13 Overtimes and 7 ended on the 1st Possession

2009:
Week 1 Pitt 13 Tenn 10 - 1st Possession******
Week 4 Cincy 23 Cleveland 20 - 7th Possession
Week 5 Dallas 26 Kansas City 20 - 4th Possession
Week 5 Denver 20 New England 17 - 1st Possession******
Week 6 Jacksonville 23 St Louis 20 - 1st Possession******
Week 6 Buffalo 16 NY Jets 13 - 6th Possession

2009 = 6 Overtimes and 3 ended on the 1st Possession (thus far)

Overall in the last 4+ years there have been 61 Overtimes and 26 ended on the 1st possession. When a game goes to overtime 42.62% of the time a team wins the coin toss, marches down and scores in some respect. I just don't feel this is a big problem. Sure it sucks when it happens (2008 Pats vs. Jets or 2009 Pats vs. Broncos) but MOST of the time this isn't happening.

Of the past 15 OT's 9 have ended on the 1st possession so that could be fresh on everyone's mind. However you could also flip a coin 20 times and get heads 16 times. These type of streaks will happen.

If you make a punnit square (remember our fun biology days?) you have 4 different scenarios.

Scenario 1: Team A wins coin toss, Team A scores
Scenario 2: Team A wins coin toss, Team A is forced to punt
Scenario 3: Team A loses coin toss, Team B scores
Scenario 4: Team A loses coin toss, Team B is forced to punt

When you toss a coin this is a 50/50 thing. It couldn't possibly be more fair.

If you want to win in the NFL, and win consistently, then you will need to get contributions from all three units - Offense, Defense, Special Teams. Why the hell is overtime any different? So you lost the toss, huh? Well fuckin' stop them!

I'll admit the system isn't perfect, but what is perfect? Seeing the Patriots lose to the Jets and Broncos on the 1st possession sucked but let's be honest. The Jets converted a 3rd and like 16 on that drive. They marched down the field, they deserved the win. The Broncos picked apart the Patriots and deserved to win.

I enjoy the fact that the NFL has only had 4 ties since 1990. Let's keep it this way! Give me sudden death any day.