Wild Card Weekend Picks

Growing up as a kid Wild Card Weekend was fun enough, you may get some good games, but all you were watching were the lambs that the 49ers, Packers, Cowboys, Steelers, Broncos, or Bills were going to slaughter the following week.  Hell, I use to always defend the 1985 Patriots, who got smoked 46-10 in the Super Bowl, by saying 'hey mothafucka say what you will about them but they won three road games to get to the Super Bowl.'  This really holds no credence any more cuz someone does that every other year now - 2005 Steelers, 2007 Giants, 2010 Packers.
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**Sidenote** Check out the turnover stats in the 1985 Patriots playoff run.

Patriots 26 Jets 14 - Patriots 0 Turnovers (TO), Jets 4
Patriots 27 Raiders 20 - Patriots 2 TO, Raiders 6 TO
Patriots 31 Dolphins 14 - Patriots 2 TO, Dolphins 6 TO
Bears 46 Patriots 10 - Patriots 6 TO, Bears 2 TO

That's 28 combined turnovers in four games!!  Jesus Christ were the playing games with a bar of soap?
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These days it's very likely that we are watching a team who is Super Bowl bound this weekend.  The Wild Card round of playoffs was introduced in 1978.  Here are your Wild Card teams who made the Super Bowl:

* 1980 Raiders - Won Super Bowl
* 1985 Patriots - Horribly Slaughtered
* 1992 Bills - Horribly Slaughtered
* 1997 Broncos - Won Super Bowl
* 1999 Titans - Lost Super Bowl
* 2000 Ravens - Won Super Bowl
* 2005 Steelers - Won Super Bowl
* 2006 Colts - Won Super Bowl
* 2007 Giants - Won Super Bowl
* 2008 Cardinals - Lost Super Bowl
* 2010 Packers - Won Super Bowl
* 2011 Giants - Won Super Bowl
* 2012 Ravens - Won Super Bowl

From 1978 to 1996 - 19 seasons, 3 Wild Card Super Bowl teams, 2 murder victims and 1 title.  7.9% of Super Bowl teams are WC and 5.3% of Super Bowl winners are WC.

From 1997 to 2012 - 16 seasons, 10 Wild Card Super Bowl teams, 8 of them won, the other two lost in the final seconds of the game.  31.3% of Super Bowl teams are WC and 50% of Super Bowl winners are WC.

Who this weekend is going to begin a Super Bowl run?  The most obvious candidate is the 49ers but the 2012 Ravens have taught me not to write off anyone entirely. Looking over these eight teams I would put the likelihood in this order:

Extremely Unlikely:  Chargers
Very Unlikely:  Saints, Packers, Colts, Chiefs
Crazier things have happened:  Eagles, Bengals
Quite Plausible:  49ers

... we'll see.

So here is a breakdown of every game and my predictions against the spread.  Picking against the spread is brutal and essentially I am likely to just go .500 if I were to put money on every game.  The key here is picking and choosing what we will put our money on (well monopoly money cuz of course gambling is illegal).  At the end of this I will put my money where my mouth is and we'll see if we can make a few bucks in the playoffs.

I'm taking lines from http://espn.go.com/nfl/lines as of 7:00 AM Thursday 01/02.

11-5 Chiefs @ 11-5 Colts (-2.5)  O/U 46

We get to start with the game I feel least confident about.  The Chiefs are 2-5 after starting 9-0 while the Colts have been playing better of late but have been all over the place this season.  They have beat the Seahawks, 49ers, and Broncos but got smoked by the Rams, Cardinals, and Bengals.   The Colts are 6-2 at home while the Chiefs are 6-2 on the road - they lost at Denver and at SD although they should have won that with their 2nd stringers.

These two teams just met in week 16 at Kansas City where the Colts, with the help of 3 KC turnovers, won 23-7.

So Indy just played in KC where they won, Chiefs 2-5 of late, Indy a ton of big wins.  So why do I get the feeling that KC is going to win this?

I feel that there is usually one game per playoff weekend that does not go to form.  The 2008 Cardinals and 2012 Ravens have taught me to not just dismiss a team that bumbles down the stretch.  I think that Alex Smith will play a turnover free game, Jamaal Charles will make one or two real big plays, but the key will be if Justin Houston or Tamba Hali can play and are effective.

These teams have met three times in the playoffs with the Colts winning all three.

1995 Divisional Round: Colts 10 - Chiefs 7
2003 Divisional Round: Colts 38 - Chiefs 31
2006 Wild Card Round: Colts 23 - Chiefs 8.

The Pick:  Chiefs (+2.5) 23 Colts 20
Any Bets to Consider?  I am going to pass on this game.  A gun to my head I would include the Chiefs in a two team 6 pt tease and take 8.5 pts.  I think this will be a one score game either way.

11-5 Saints @ 10-6 Eagles (-2.5) O/U 53.5

Ah my beloved Saints.  Oh wait, I hate the Saints.  I can't stand dome teams who, when placed outdoors, let alone in bad weather, fold like tents.  In typical Saints fashion they are great at home and blow on the road.

Home:  8-0 34 PF 15.6 PA
Away:  3-5 17.8 PF 22.4 PA
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**Sidenote** Unless you get great value, stay away from Drew Brees in your fantasy leagues.  He's a loser's bet.  You have to blow a first or second round pick on a guy, that if your fantasy playoffs puts him on the road, will surely let you down.  Week 15 @ Carolina Brees turned in 281 yards 1 TD 2 INT's.  If you MUST pick him check out his week 15 & 16 schedule and pray those are home games.  Otherwise have a Plan B and don't be a pussy about benching him!  He is a stat collecting indoor QB!!!  Give me Rodgers or Manning over him for early round FF purposes.  If Brees somehow falls to the 3rd, 4th, 5th round, then yes clearly grab him.
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The only thing the Saints are good for are teaser bets when they play at home (tease the over line down 6 pts - provided the opponent has a competent offense - and give the Saints 6 more pts, then sit back and collect).

The Eagles come into their wild card game having won 7 of the past 8 games.  I still don't love the defense all that much but Nick Foles doesn't make mistakes while Shady McCoy and DeSean Jackson can rip off a huge play at any moment.  I feel that this is a team that if they can get some playmakers on defense, will be heard from in the next few years.

These teams have split their two prior playoff matchups:

1992 Wild Card:  Eagles 36 Saints 20
2006 Divisional Round:  Saints 27 Eagles 24

The Pick:  Eagles (-2.5) 31 Saints 24
Any Bets to Consider?  Keep your eye on the weather.  We know it will be cold but if it's windy and snowy then Eagles -2.5 is a solid bet.  Also the O/U has come down from 55 to 53.5.  I always find it interesting where the public's money is going.

9-7 Chargers @ 11-5 Benglas (-7) O/U 47

All the things I just did to belittle the Saints on the road I am going to do to pump up the Bengals at home.  Did you know that along with the Saints and Patriots, the Bengals were also 8-0 at home this season?  We already discussed the Saints home resume and let's be honest about the Patriots, ugly wins, improbable wins, dramatic wins, and downright insane wins.

The Bengals haven't needed the dramatics.  As a matter of fact, they have been thrashing teams at home of late.  Last 5 home games:

10/27 - Bengals 49 Jets 9
11/17 - Bengals 41 Browns 20
12/8 - Bengals 42 Colts 28
12/22 - Bengals 42 Vikings 14
12/29 - Bengals 34 Ravens 17

The only pause here is that the Bengals have blown donkey balls in the playoffs under Marvin Lewis (0-4).  Andy Dalton has 0 TD's 4 INT's and a QB Rating of 48.6 in his two playoff appearances.

The Chargers, are downright lucky to even be in the tournament.  The Chiefs rested their starters, missed a potential game winning field goal, and (surprising to no one) the refs horribly dicked up a call that probably put San Diego in the playoffs while keeping Pittsburgh at home.  Nonetheless, all you need is an opportunity.  The 2011 Giants are aware of this (1:35 mark, a catch here puts them outta the playoffs).

But let's be real here, Phil Rivers & co. are the same old Chargers.  I don't see this game being very close.

The one and only time these guys met in the playoffs it was the coldest game in NFL history.

1981 AFC Championship Games:  Bengals 27 Chargers 7

The Pick:  Bengals (-7) 34 Chargers 21
Any Bets to Consider?  I like both the Bengals and the over in this game.  If this line falls to 6.5 I'd like the Bengals even more.

12-4 49ers (-2.5) @ 8-7-1 Packers O/U 46.5

You won't find a bigger Aaron Rodgers fan than I.  I've already watched the play of the NFL season about 83 times.  4th down and 8, 46 seconds left, season is on the line, Julius Peppers charging at you... ah no problem, I'll just dodge him, roll left, and flick a 50 yard strike for the win.  Who else in the NFL makes that play??? Maaaaaaybe Russell Wilson, that's it. (Not to mention I won 140 monopoly dollars on my Packers futures bet too :) )

That being said, this Packers squad isn't very good.  Over their last 10 games the defense has allowed 31, 27, 27, 27, 26, 40, 21, 36, 38, 28.  Woof.  Rodgers and Cobb will help.  Being home will help.  But man, what a crappy draw.  The 49ers have won six straight games.  They lost to the Saints before that on the bull shit roughing the passer call and they lost to the Panthers 10-9.  Those tough losses, aside they have won 11 of 13.  It is likely they are 1a to Seattle's 1 in the current power rankings.

The Packers defense also THOROUGHLY sucks against Kaepernick.

Last season's divisional round game:  17-31 263 yards 2 TD's 1 INT, 16 rushes 181 yards 2 TD's
Week 1 this year:  27-39 412 yards 3 TD's

The last three meetings between these two have been very high scoring (all 49ers wins) 30-22, 45-31, 34-28.

The forecast Sunday is suppose to be super cold but I have not heard of much snow or wind in the forecast.
These two teams play all the time in the playoffs:

1995 Divisional Round: Packers 27 49ers 17
1996 Divisional Round: Packers 35 49ers 14
1997 NFC Championship Game:  Packers 23 49ers 10
1998 Wild Card:  49ers 30 Packers 27
2001 Wild Card:  Packers 25 49ers 15
2012 Divisional Round: 49ers 45 Packers 31

The Pick:  49ers (-2.5) 30 Packers 20
Any Bets to Consider?  I really like both the 49ers and the over.  The Packers D is horrible and Rodgers is good enough to hang for a half or even three quarters.

Putting My Monopoly Money Where My Mouth Is

$55 to win $50 on two team 6 pt tease:  Bengals -1 & SF/GB Over 40.5
$20 to $50 on two team parlay:  Cincy/SD Over 47 & SF -2.5

I ain't touching Saturday and will be all over Sunday.  ATS I'll probably end up 2-2 but hopefully above I can take home 2-0.