Saturday, October 2, 2010

An Overhyped Legacy

I've been watching the NFL Network's top 100 players of all time and was greatly disappointed to see that Bart Starr was ranked #51. This means that presumably the experts feel that the following group of players were better: Joe Montana, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Dan Marino, John Elway, Roger Staubach, Otto Graham, Sammy Baugh, Johnny Unitas, Brett Favre (pukes), and possibly Terry Bradshaw. Some of them sure, some meh, some hell no.

I'm not going to debate this though, none of us watched Starr play, and if you've read my facebook statuses over the past few years you are probably sick of hearing Glassman and myself circle jerk to him.

So whose legacy am I going to attack for the next 5,000 words??? Favre??? Too predictable, too easy. Marino??? Nah, I think his legacy is about right among the experts. Some of the old guys like Graham, Baugh, Unitas, Staubach, or Bradshaw??? Let's keep it current, someone we all saw. Montana??? I should slit my wrists and light myself on fire if the thought ever crept into my head. Manning & Brady will retire as two of the top five ever so it's dumb to go there either.

This leaves us with my boy John Elway. It's not really a mystery how I feel about Elway. Elway though is pretty damn overrated. I've seen lists that put him as a top 3 quarterback which is asinine. Elway is probably a top 15 all time quarterback at best and I'm going to tell you why he's not even really all that much better than Buffalo Bill great Jim Kelly who gets about one zillionth as much praise.

Both Elway and Kelly came out of the 1983 draft. Elway was the 1st selection overall taken by the Baltimore Colts while Kelly went 14th to the Bills. Elway was a star athlete who was also drafted by the Yankees and debated playing baseball for a living. He put up a huge snivelly stink about the Colts and forced his way out like a bitch, similar to Eli Manning. All of this immediately put Elway on the map.

Kelly on the other hand didn't make his way over to Buffalo until 1986, instead opting to play two seasons in the USFL where he was 1984 league MVP and in those two years amassed 9,842 passing yards and 83 TD's (granted against a bunch of shit bums, but still, Jesus Christ).

From 1986 to 1996 both men played in the NFL at the same time and both the Broncos and Bills owned the AFC - which, as we'll get to, isn't saying a whole lot. The 4 or 5 best teams each season were in the NFC.

So what's the two biggest reasons why everyone strokes it to Elway? What does he got that Kelly doesn't.

1. He has a signature, all time moment - The Drive. In the 1986 AFC Championship Game Elway led the Broncos on a 98 yard touchdown drive at the end of the 4th quarter to tie the game and force overtime. The Broncos obviously went on to win.

Now anytime a team has the ball with only a few minutes left every announcer parallels the moment to Elways. It's hard to argue that this wasn't one of the great playoff moments in NFL history, shit was sick, but it makes everyone think "4th quarter comebacks" and "John Elway" like they are synonomous. (In Kelly's first AFC Championship game the Bills were too busy raping the Raiders 51-3 so there wasn't a moment like this).

2. Elway won 2 Super Bowls, Kelly didn't win any. We'll get back to this....
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From 1986 to 1993 the Broncos and Bills represented the AFC in 7 of the 8 Super Bowls (they went 0-7). Here's a breakdown of how their numbers match up in this stretch:

Pro Bowls: Elway 5, Kelly 5 - EVEN
First Team All Pro: Elway 0, Kelly 1 (1991) - ADVANTAGE KELLY
Passing Yards: Elway 26,094 Kelly 26,413 - DEAD ASS EVEN
TD's & INT's: Elway 136-115, Kelly 179-126 - BIG ADVANTAGE KELLY (I was pretty shocked at how badly Kelly rolled him here)
Win-Loss record: Elway 71-45-1, Kelly 76-42 - EVEN
Playoff W/L record: Elway 7-5, Kelly 8-6 - EVEN
Super Bowl Performances: Both fucking blew - EVEN

Let's get one caveat out of the way. The Buffalo Bills in this stretch were more talented than the Denver Broncos... easily. Thurman Thomas, Andre Reed, Bruce Smith, Darryl Talley, etc, etc

The argument could be said that John Elway CARRIED a sad group to 3 Super Bowls and all this success. I can't dispute that, he did. However these two teams didn't quite peak at the same time in this eight year stretch. This wasn't like Brady and Manning having to go through one another to get to the Super Bowl. The Broncos owned the first half of this run, the Bills had the second. They only met in the playoffs once which was the 1991 AFC Championship Game won by Buffalo 10-7. Had they peaked at the same time, I'm sorry to say Broncos fans, your boy Elway doesn't get to a single Super Bowl. The Bills would have squashed them. They were just a much better team.

This leads to another question, who exactly did Elway defeat in the AFC to make this run of dominance in the conference? Talk about STINK. I guess their big rivals were the Browns and big bad Bernie Kosar. Miami was decent in the mid 80's, besides that though who else????

Like I said earlier the top 4 or 5 teams were in the NFC every year. This was about the 49ers, Bears, Redskins, Giants, and Cowboys. In this time frame, 1984 to 1996 in fact, the NFC won 13 straight Super Bowls - 11 blow outs and 2 close games. One of those close games featured the only AFC team who was probably better and should have beaten their NFC counterpart.... the 1990 Buffalo Bills.

In Super Bowl XXV, the Bills allowed Bill Parcells and Bill Belichick to dictate the way this game was played. It was a hard hitting, grind em out, and sustaining drives kind of game. EXACTLY up the Giants alley and not what the high scoring Bills wanted. Nonetheless, Kelly led a nice little drive himself to put the Bills within a Scott Norwood 47 yard field goal of winning the game. We know how it ended... wide right and the only time the Bills would sniff a chance at a title.

In the end though, Elway and Kelly played each other to a draw during this stretch - the PRIME of both players.
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Kelly went on to play 3 more seasons. He never made another pro bowl but he had decent years in 1994 & 1995. In 1995 & 1996 the Bills reached the playoffs but by this time their dominant nucleus was growing old. Kelly started to suck in his final year throwing 14 TD's and 19 INT's and it was time to hang em up.

In 1990, 91, and 92 Elway threw for 15, 13, and 10 touchdowns, yes 10. His ratings were 78.5, 75.4 and a Jamarcus Russelesque 65.7.

In 1993 and 1994 Elway bounced back with two nice years as the Broncos started to get him a few weapons but they were still pretty ordinary going 16-16. They weren't anything close to a Super Bowl contender.

Then from 1995 to 1998 Elway (and the Broncos) had a resurgence. By this point he was 35 years old. Had he hooked up with Barry Bonds folks at Balco??? What exactly happened from 1995 to 1998??

Terrell Davis. That's what happened.

Besides Earl Campbell and Eric Dickerson , no running back has had a four year run to start his career like Terrell Davis. No running back in NFL History was better in the playoffs. I won't argue this and anybody who tries to tell me another running back will be yelled down until I lose my voice. Terrell Davis played in 8 playoff games.... here are his numbers (get some tissues).

1996 Loss to Jacksonville: 14 carries 91 yards 1 TD

1997 Win vs Jacksonville: 31 carries 184 yards 2 TD's
1997 Win vs Kansas City: 25 carries 101 yards 2 TD's
1997 Win vs Pittsburgh: 26 carries 139 yards 1 TD
1997 Win vs Green Bay: 30 carries 157 yards 3 TD's - Super Bowl MVP

1998 Win vs Miami: 21 carries 199 yards 2 TD's
1998 Win vs NY Jets: 32 carries 167 yards 1 TD
1998 Win vs Atlanta: 25 carries 102 yards

Gooooood.... Loooorrrrd!!!! In 8 games he totalled 1,140 yards, 5.6 yards per carry, and 12 TD's. If you only count the two Super Bowl years (7 games) he had 1,049 yards and 11 TD's. If you stretched this pace out over 16 games (and let's not ignore that this was done against presumably the best teams the NFL had to offer when everyone knew he was getting the rock) he would have 2,398 yards and 25 TD's.

How did Elway do in this time???

1997 Win vs Jacksonville: 16-24 223 yards 1 TD
1997 Win vs Kansas City: 10-19 170 yards
1997 Win vs Pittsburgh: 18-31 210 yards 2 TDs's 1 INT
1997 Win vs Green Bay: 12-22 123 yards 1 INT, 1 TD Run

1998 Win vs Miami: 14-23 182 yards 1 TD
1998 Win vs NY Jets: 13-34 (yikes) 173 yards 1 TD
1998 Win vs Atlanta: 18-29 336 yards 1 TD 1 INT, 1 TD Run - Super Bowl MVP

These numbers certainly aren't bad, NY Jets game aside, but he wasn't asked to win games. I'll give him credit that ending his hall of fame career as a Super Bowl MVP is a pretty nasty way to do so (but TD wasn't exactly minced meat in that game either).

Pat Bowlen, Denver Broncos owner, has the famous line upon receiving Super Bowl XXXII's trophy: "This one's... for John!" What he really meant to say was: "This one's... for John... courtesy... of TD!"

Elway's longevity was impressive. He was fine taking a back seat in order to get to the promised land which I can only applaud. He remained very effective until the end, BUT he NEVER sniffs even another Super Bowl APPEARANCE, let alone win, without Terrell Davis, one of the greatest RB's of all time.

Thanks to this fortune, Elway has transformed in everyone's mind from the guy who always got rolled in lopsided Super Bowls to a "top 3 quarterback" while poor Jim Kelly has night terrors thinking about Norwood's shank which cost him and his legacy. He will NEVER be mentioned in the same echelon as Elway, a place where he belongs (or where Elway should be?). Drives me nuts....