If you look at a players stats on ESPN they have a line that shows projected totals for the end of the year. I've never in my life seen a year where the entire league has had passing numbers like these. Check out what these QB's are all on pace to do:
Peyton Manning - 5,013 yards - 40 TD's - 11 Int's
Philip Rivers - 4,741 yards - 27 TD's - 8 Int's
Matt Schaub - 4,741 yards - 37 TD's - 11 Int's
Ben Roethlisberger - 4,713 yards - 25 TD's - 14 Int's
Tom Brady - 4,645 yards - 34 TD's - 9 Int's
Aaron Rodgers - 4,539 yards - 29 TD's - 5 Int's
Drew Brees - 4,528 yards - 37 TD's - 13 Int's
Joe Flacco - 4,464 yards - 29 TD's - 13 Int's
Kurt Warner - 4,459 yards - 24 TD's - 16 Int's
Tomy Romo - 4,405 yards - 24 TD's - 11 Int's
Kyle Orton - 3,907 yards - 24 TD's - 3 Int's
Brett Favre - 3,842 yards - 27 TD's - 7 Int's
Eli Manning - 3, 733 yards - 27 TD's - 14 Int's
Carson Palmer - 3,675 - 30 TD's - 16 Int's
Matt Ryan - 3,627 yards - 29 TD's - 16 Int's
That's just stupid. Ten QB's on pace to throw for 4,000 yards??? And look who's on this list of QB's with crazy numbers... I mean, yes we see this most years out of Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Kurt Warner and Brett Favre, but look at Schaub's numbers... Christ look at Roethliberger, so much for the running tough Pittsburgh Steelers. Kyle Orton had nothing more than a fantastic porn stache with the Bears and now he's playing like Joe Montana.
Here are some of these QB's career highlights prior to 2009:
Matt Schaub - 3,043 yards - 15 TD's in 2008
Ben Roethlisberger - Yards each Season: 2,621.. 2,385.. 3,513.. 3,154.. 3,301..... TD's: 17, 17, 18, 32, 17
Joe Flacco - 2,971 yards - 14 TD's in 2008
Kyle Orton - 2,972 yards - 18 TD's in 2008
At this pace the top 10 QB's in yardage would make up 10 of the 35 best seasons of all time. No other season has more than 2 players from the same year on the list.
Tony Romo who would finish 10th this year would have finished first in the following years (starting in 1966): 1966 through 1979, 1982, 1985, 1987, 1989, 1992, 1993, 1996, 1997, 1998, 2003, 2005.
So what the hell is happening???
I think first off that offenses are going more to the shotgun, 4 or 5 wide, spread em out type of thing. The game has evolved both in players and coaching styles to just want to line up and chuck the rock around. As a fan all I can say is 'fucking right!' It's only about 10 times more exciting than 3 yard runs. Don't get me wrong I love to watch a great back like AP but I'll take Brady dropping back 40 times over Macaroney dancing at the line of scrimmage any day.
Here are your number of 4,000 yard passers since 1990:
1990: 1
1991: 1
1992: 1
1993: 2
1994: 3
1995: 4
1996: 3
1997: 0
1998: 2
1999: 5
2000: 3
2001: 2
2002: 4
2003: 2
2004: 5
2005: 2
2006: 5
2007: 7 * current record
2008: 6
Most of these guys more than likely won't keep this pace up since we will have injuries, shittier weather, and defenses that seem to figure out tendencies as the year rolls on but where would you put the over/under on QB's over 4,000 yards??? I'll say 7.5 and I'd probably take the over.
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I think alot of this has to do with defenses getting faster and stronger. Unless you have a stud RB or a sick o-line, it seems to be getting increasingly harder to run the ball.
ReplyDeleteBut when you spread 'em out, you're almost always going to get a matchup in your favor, as the number of viable corners are vastly outnumbered by serviceable receivers.
After all, it's easier to run a route, than it is to cover one, because you don't know where he is going!
Yeah definitely dude... and you could argue that screens and short passes are just an extension of the running game this day and age. If you look at older QB's everyone completed like 55% of their passes and their QB ratings blew. Now a days everyone is like 65% and I think Chad Pennington is like in the top 10 highest QB ratings all time... 'nuff said.
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