The Real Key to SB XLIX

Enough with deflated balls.  Hell, lost in all this is the deflated balls of the Seahawks secondary who all turned from 5th round picks into superstars.  Let's discuss the real key for the Patriots... the achilles of their whole 14 year run... 4th quarter defense.

In victory and defeat alike, the Patriots 4th quarter defense in big playoff games has generally been leaky mcgee.  As someone who has made a wager or two in his life, the 2nd half of NFL games - 4th quarters in particular - are bananas.  Whether it's offensive desperation, defensive fatigue, coaches making adjustments, lousy situational play, or tightened sphincters, every team is affected to some degree.

Let's take a trip down memory lane... we'll venture into memories both wonderful and terrifying.  Did I say wonderful?  I meant that time you had 71 panic attacks but it worked out in the end and you collapsed to the ground thankful the Patriots won.

* Yes some of these stats are cherry picked. Yes I didn't include some games where the Pats won and the D was fine.  Nonetheless, you will see the trend.

SUPER BOWL XXXVI - Patriots vs Rams

Score entering the 4th quarter:  Patriots 17 - Rams 3
4th quarter:  Rams 14 - Patriots 3

Adam Vinatieri kicked a late 3rd quarter figgie to put the Pats up 17-3.  The Rams then, after doing nothing all game, took the ball and went on a 17 play 77 yard drive that ate up seven minutes and pulled them within a touchdown.  They were aided by a 4th and goal holding call on Willie McGinest that wiped a Patriots TD off the board.  Sadly it was the right call and the Rams scored two plays later.

The next drive the Pats went three and out punting back to the Rams with 7:44 left.  The Rams held the ball for another 4 minutes but had to punt back to New England.  ANOTHER three and out for the Pats and by this time the defense was GASSED.  The Rams tied the game in three plays.  The Pats would obviously go on to win but only had the ball 4 mins 30 seconds of the 4th quarter.  The spectacular defensive performance ran out of steam.

SUPER BOWL XXXVIII - Patriots vs Panthers

The Panthers three 4th quarter drives:  Touchdown, Touchdown, Touchdown

Super Bowl 38 was a pretty crazy game.  The over/under was 38!!!! My fellow addicts know that today, even if you get Browns - Cardinals (Lindley Cards not Palmer Cards) the O/U is still 40ish.  The first 27 minutes were scoreless.  Then before the half TD, TD, TD, FG.  Pats 14 - Panthers 10

The third quarter?

Scoreless.

The 4th quarter was 19-18 Carolina (slew of missed/made 2 pt conversions).  Were these teams knocking the shit out of each other and the flood gates opened?  Did the Pats suffer a rash of 4th quarter injuries?  Did Jake Delhomme catch fire?   Basically... yes, yes, and yes.  The Pats went from best pass defense of the past 30 years to a total dumpster fire.

Sidenote:  Imagine playing squares on this game?  0-0 (great numbers) won the 1st quarter, 4-0 (great numbers) took the 2nd and 3rd quarter, then 2-9 (about as bad as it gets) took the game.  We all know that the guy who runs these at work gives himself and his buddies all the 7-4, 1-0 combos, but here's to the dorky older lady you tried to sabotage.  Two and Nine baby!!!

Super Bowl XXXIX - Patriots vs Eagles

Super Bowl 39 really doesn't belong on this list, BUT the Eagles 2nd to last drive is worth noting.  With the score 24-14 the Eagles took the ball at their own 21 with 5:40 remaining.  They then proceeded to go 59 yards in 3:40 seconds in the most head scratching, non-urgent drive in the history of the NFL (we later learned McNabb was honking in the huddle and couldn't call plays).  So now it's the 2 minute warning with Philly on the 30.  Make them keep dinking and dunking!  Next play, Donovan McNabb 30 yard TD to Greg Lewis.  Somebody didn't GTFB!!!!

The supremely coached Patriots went on to recover the onside kick as drawn up and punt the ball down to the Eagles 4 after three straight runs.  McPukey went on to throw a game ending pick.

2006 AFC Championship Game - Patriots vs Colts

2nd half score:  Colts 32 - Patriots 13

Despite the grotesque beat down the Colts gave the Patriots in the 2nd half, 15 of those Colts points came in the first ten minutes of the 3rd quarter.  The final 20 minutes of the game were a back and forth affair.  Pats TD, Colts TD, Pats FG, Colts FG, Pats FG.

With 2:17 remaining from his own 20, Manning led a 7 play 80 yard drive that took 1:15.  The Patriots never made a single play on this drive.  They did strip Reggie Wayne (who recovered his own fumble) but on that same play Tully Banta-Cain got called for roughing the QB.

When the defense was needed most, it crumbled big time.

Super Bowl XLII - Patriots vs Giants

Points allowed during the first 3 quarters:  3
Points allowed in the 4th quarter:  14

I don't think we need to rehash this one.

2010 Divisional Round - Patriots vs Jets

4th quarter points allowed:  14

Yes, the Patriots were behind all game and yes they were playing catch up, BUT the Patriots did have this game at 14-11 at the very start of the 4th quarter.  Just get a stop, get the ball back to Brady, and ride that momentum.   Wheellllllpppppppppp, the Jets INSTANTLY completed a short dump off pass to Cotchery for 58 yards.  The Patriots then got the Jets into a 3rd and 4 from the 7  but a Sanchez to Holmes TD put the Jets in front 21-11 and that was ball game.  The D, again, could not come up with a play late in a playoff game when they needed it.

Super Bowl XLVI - Patriots vs Giants

After the gut wrenching Welker drop the Pats had to punt back to the Giants.  17-15 lead, 3:46 on the clock, ball at the Giants 12.  Needing only a field goal, the universe knew the Patriots were porked the moment Welker dropped his pass.  It would just be a matter of will it be...

... a Giants FG....
OR.... a Giants TD...
AND... how much time will Brady have left

The first play was a tear drop from Manning to Manningham for 38 yards.  This allowed the Giants to really attack the third point of bleeding the clock and giving Brady no time to work with.  Another fourth quarter defensive failure.  This one, to me, felt the most predictable of any of the above.  At least in the other ones I could delude myself into thinking the defense would make a play.

2012 AFC Championship Game - Patriots vs Ravens

2nd half score:  Ravens 21 - Patriots 0

This game falls more into the category of the Jets game where you basically got your ass kicked all over.  Nonetheless the defense was worn down and got completely owned by Baltimore in the second half.

So this brings us to Super Bowl XLIX.  Distraction bull crap aside, this looks like another tight game that is going to be decided in the fourth quarter.  Is this defense different?  Can we take any confidence from the defense's play late in the Ravens game or did Flacco just throw one up for grabs when it wasn't necessary?  Are these just a small sample of games that we cannot draw conclusions from or is BB's bend but don't break defensive strategy more prone to get slapped in the yam bag come the 4th quarter?

I'd be shocked if we don't find out on February 1st.